DTN/The Progressive Farmer: Agriculture Markets, News and Weather

DTN/The Progressive Farmer: Agriculture Markets, News and Weather

Wednesday 12/01/10

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US & Chinese Yields of Key Grains

Joel Karlin DTN Contributing Analyst While the trade continues to debate the likelihood of China purchasing large quantities of foreign corn this year, it appears that over the long-term this nation will eventually have to become a large importer of various grains and feed ingredients, similar to its status in the soybean market. An increasing middle class with rising incomes has translated into much of their populace changing diets to one featuring greater consumption of meat and dairy products. This necessitates increased utilization of feed grains and protein meals to feed all the cattle, hogs, and chickens. The resulting rapid increase in feed demand has completely overwhelmed their productive capabilities. This is based on limited arable land, much lower productivity in the agricultural sector than seen in many other nations, and yields that run well below those seen in the U.S. for most grain and oilseeds, with the exception of wheat. Reasons for this include less use of higher-yielding hybrids, widespread land and water pollution, and less intensive use of modern technology. This graphic plots U.S. and Chinese yields of major grains in metric tons per hectare. Over the past 15 years, U.S. corn yields have averaged 76% higher than those in China; rice, 15% greater; and soybeans, 56% larger. Only in wheat does China surpass the U.S.: Its yields are 50% greater. This is due, however, to China's emphasis on quantity over quality, as much of China’s wheat is used for feed whereas U.S. wheat is utilized more for milling purposes and traits such as protein are more important. (KA)

Posted at 9:26AM CST 12/01/10