U.S. stockpiles of corn before next year’s harvest will be 0.6 percent larger than estimated last month because of a gain in imports, the government said.
The surplus on Aug. 31, the end of the marketing year, will be 832 million bushels, up from 827 million forecast in November and less than 1.708 billion on hand a year earlier, the U.S. Department of Agriculture said today in a report. A rise in imports to 15 million bushels from 10 million was the only change the department made from the previous forecast. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News expected inventories of 806 million bushels, on average.
Even with the increase, “corn supplies are getting snug,” Jerrod Kitt, a market analyst for the Linn Group Inc. in Chicago, said before the report. “You will need near-perfect global weather next year to rebuild inventories to more comfortable levels.”
Corn futures for March delivery fell 0.25 cent to close at $5.7425 a bushel yesterday on the Chicago Board of Trade. Corn has surged 50 percent in the past year as adverse weather reduced global production.
Crop Estimate
The USDA’s crop estimate of 12.54 billion bushels is 4.4 percent smaller than 2009’s record output of 13.11 billion bushels. The government on Jan. 12 will release its final estimate of this year’s harvest and an estimate for consumption for the first three months of the marketing year that began Sept. 1.
The USDA estimated world production in the 2010-2011 season, which began Oct. 1, at 820.71 million metric tons, up from 818.52 million forecast in November, on increased production in the European Union, Canada and Ukraine. That compares with a record 812.4 million tons harvested last season.
China Production
China, the second-largest producer, will harvest 168 million tons, unchanged from last month, the USDA said. Its estimate for China’s imports and exports were also left unchanged, at 200,000 tons and 1 million tons, respectively.
Global consumption will reach 837.91 million tons, up from 837.31 million estimated last month and more than‘ 812.5 million last year, the USDA said. It would be the second straight year world consumption exceeds output.
World inventories before next year’s harvest will total 130 million tons, up from 129.16 million estimated in November and down from 147.19 million this year.
To contact the reporters on this story: Jeff Wilson in Chicago at jwilson29@bloomberg.net
Alan Bjerga in Washington at abjerga@bloomberg.net
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Steve Stroth at sstroth@bloomberg.net.
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